Mafia V - World of Warcraft Legion -

[Gaeios(Graxlos)]

It is now night.

[Cwave]

Phoenixflame had been harassed for the last few days now, getting insulted and blamed for the deaths. He tried to argue and prove his innocence but he got reminded that no one trusted him repeatedly. What the raid didn’t know was his true identity. Back in the days, he was renowned for two things in particular: his skill at subtle political maneuverings and his lack of eyes — he replaced his eyes with magic black crystals that bore streaks of crimson. And now, cornered by a group of shitty raiders that wouldn’t let go of the thought of him being the bad guy. Fair enough, he had killed Cwave the Shaman to obtain the artifact weapon he held for one of his goons so they would be better prepared for the fights to come. But he didnt expect this tenacity of the group in finding the culprits.

And while he couldn’t sway their minds and votes like he had done so many times before he thought that they were very, very right to not trust me. Once he even convinced the night elven queen Azshara of the necessity of turning the will of her mages, the so-called "Highborne", towards creating a portal into the Twisting Nether through which Sargeras and the Legion could enter the world. Phoenixflame was successful enough in his endeavors to welcome several ranking members of the Legion into Azeroth, including several felguard, Hakkar the Houndmaster, and Mannoroth. That was untill that retarded druid of a Malfurion Stormrage came in between them.

Phoenixflame’s master, Sargeras, was unhappy with him and this failure, and he faced punishment for his this. Sargeras tortured Phoenixflame’s disembodied spirit for a time, but eventually he showed a form of mercy. He decided that Phoenixflame could be of further use after all. He returned Phoenixflame to life, but not as he once was. To mark the traits Sargeras valued in him, and to brand him forever as an ally and servant of the Legion, Sargeras transformed and disfigured Phoenixflame body.

He created a new body for Phoenixflame: a body with cloven hooves, shaggy goat legs, goatlike horns, razor-sharp claws, and a long, leonine tail:He was known as Xavius, First of the Satyrs.

He showed his shade to the group of raiders. They were prepping up for a fight but the coward Xavius was about to flee.

Useless maggots, I’m going to lead the conquest of Val'sharah, where the tainted World Tree, Shala'drassil, spreads the Emerald Nightmare's corruption. With an army of vile satyrs at my command, I will stop at nothing to vanquish all who oppose the Burning Legion. Come seek me out in the Emerald Nightmare if you dare!

"There is only one god ...
and his name is Sargeras."

•   Welcome, Phoenixflame, you are Xavius, First of the Satyr and the Mafia Godfather.

•   When the Town Cop happens to investigates you at night, he will get a result back for you being Town instead of Mafia
•   Each night phase, you and your fellow Mafia players pick one target to eliminate.

Phoenixflame aka Xavius, First of the Satyr and the Mafia Godfather has been lynched.




It's now Night 3. The Night ends @ 23:00 GMT+1 20-10-2016. Don't forget to send in your actions.

[Yoica]

Sweet! One more to go!

Here is very quick list from my side based on memory. After work I'll looking things up to see if I missed anything or made a mistake.

Probably townies
1. Inexcitus - Why would Phoenix vote for him if he was mafia? Phoenix's vote ensured Inexcitus was the 1st player to hit 2 votes.
2. Grill - There were no mafia players on 2 votes that Grilly had to save. So his reasoning for voting for Inexcutis was his own and not from necessity
3. Mouseh - A Godfather implicating a Goon might make sense to gain the trust of townie, but a Goon implicating a Godfather right off the bat is stupid in the extreme. Since Mouseh was the 1st to question Phoenix she is in the clear

My opinions on others with follow later.

[Yoica]

Actually my argument of Grill could be wrong. While it wasn't necessary to vote for Inexcutis doesn't mean he isn't mafia. But it would be stupid to have 2 mafia voting on the same target on day 1 while it wasn't needed.

[Grilldyret]

Oh, thank god! Best case scenario, now to determine whether he was thrown under the bus by the goon, or the goon was standing by quietly until the case onto Phoenix was made and there was no turning back.

I agree that this clears Mouseh, and Inexcitus is pretty much in the clear already. Vorte is _quite_ safe as he started the Rash vote before Hugman's crusade. I'm glad that you are putting me on your "Probably townie"-list Yoica, but I suspect others might not.
Therefore we have the following suspects remaining:
Yoica, Gaeios, Grilldyret, Archz.

To quote Yoica during day 2 (I apologize for lacking timestamp, had to get this quote from a separate browser tab):
 

Calm down Hug, your word isn't god.

Phoenix isn't high on vote because of shitty spread. He's high because people think he is mafia before you convinced ppl rash is.

Like I said you make a compelling argument for Rash. The current vote as 2 mafia (in my book) on 1st and 2nd place this is the PERFECT situation for townie.

Yoica was going for Phoenix already there, which he should have been careful with doing if he was red. That makes him less likely to be red than Gaeios, who also jumped on Phoenix early. Archz is however my main suspect at this point.

What I would like us to do now is systematically lynch those that are not at least semi-confirmed green. Tomorrow we will most likely be 4vs1 unless the doctor pulls some sick reads. Then we can afford accidentally lynching _one_ townie if it comes to that, most likely leaving us at 2v1 the next day. Unless I am lynched tomorrow, I will most likely be left together with a mafia and a townie, because let's face it; The mafia aren't going to snipe me tonight as I am not a confirmed townie in people's eyes yet.

The ones that are widely accepted as green have to sleep with one eye open tonight, as the last mafia will want the _least_ confirmed players left in a 2v1 situation.

So, this is how I think it will play out if there are no doctor saves:
- Mouseh, Vorte or Inexcitus are killed tonight.
- Tomorrow, we lynch either me, Gaeios or Archz.
- The next night, one of the two remaining "safe" players are killed.
- The next morning, we have one "safe" player, one semi-safe in my eyes (Yoica) and two unsafe (me, Gaeios or Archz).
- We can then proceed to lynch another one of the two remaining unsafe players, and if the mafia hasn't been caught yet we are at 2v1.
- The next morning, the last remaining safe player is lynched. We are left with..

Oh fuck, this doesn't add up. That leaves a 1v1, so that's no good.

(I am leaving my reasoning in here even though it turned out wrong, as it could be food for thought. I really did try to solve this puzzle strategically, but it suddenly stopped dead when I realized that we are one good guy short.)
This will only work out if there is at least 1 successful doctor save, or if one of the three unsafe players manage to convince the rest without a doubt that they are green.

Back to work now, will look at this again later.

[Yoica]

Most likely Town
1. Inexcitus - see earlier post
2. Mouseh - see earlier post

Likely town
3. Vorte - start the vote on Rash. He also made some comments concerning posts made by Archz and Rash, that never really got a good response from gents.

Might be mafia. (most to least likely)
1. Archz - He (indirectly) asked players to come out with their roles

What I'm proposing is that our named town, vigilante or bodyguard comes forward and gains protection from the doctor. I think we can at least all agree upon this being smart if he's on the voting roster. At this point I think the cop should only come forward once he finds a mafia. If he comes forward and says who he found to be townie, then he would need protection and the verified townie would probably be killed that first night, but here I'm open for input

He tried to defect from Phoenix on day 2 by claiming he might be the doctor. Fkkn random thought there?!

I'm more than willing to cast my vote on Phoenix today if that's what it takes. I'm getting a feeling now that he might be the doctor though :p

2. Grill - His last post actually moved him into the mafia spectrum for me.

Therefore we have the following suspects remaining:
Yoica, Gaeios, Grilldyret, Archz.

versus what he wrote at the end of day 2.

As for Phoenix, he is still having a go at Inexcitus. Either that's because he's a player on my own level, or he is trying to re-kindle the suspicions. With mainly 3 people going for Phoenix at the moment (Grax, Yoica, Mouseh) I would normally be happy to join the lynch on him, but if this lynch is constructed by the mafia with the help of unaware townies, it can go south very quickly. If he turns out red it's a huge win for us (Which also largely clears any suspicion towards these 3 players), and if he turns out green we know which 3 people to look into first after the hanging.

Let me describe a scenario:
Phoenixflame turns out red. Then there is one mafia remaining, and 4 people that most likely are green. (Inexcitus, Grax, Yoica, Mouseh). That leaves 3 people as main suspects (Archz, Vorte, Grilly). Then you can lynch the remaining suspects until you find the red one, as I am assuming I am still part of the victory even though I'm dead! I can promise you that I will follow your bandwagon at this point to make sure we outnumber the final red player till the end.

Gaeios and I have gone from almost surely town if Phoenix is red to suspects in your book? What has changed?
Why is vorte a townie for you now? He made no posts since your big day 2 analysis.

3. Gaeios -

Is quick to jump on Archz suggestion that Phoenix might be the doctor. Sadly neither player really give any arguments why they think this and only 1 can be mafia.

Uf dont plant the seed of doubt. Phoenixflames behaviour could easily be doctorplay, that would change my view on Yoica quite drastically though.

Most of his other analyses are in line with my thinking and he made no weird changes in his posts.

[Mouseh]

Good job guys. Just one more left, but I have a feeling this one is going to be a little harder to find.
Post your thoughts before the night ends, because in the morning one of us is going to be dead, most probably :/

I'll write smth more constructive once i find time.

[Grilldyret]

Vorte has moved down my suspicio-meter because he voted for Rash first on day 2. I don't think I took this into account in the quoted post.

The reason why I don't think you two are cleared yet is the following:
Yoica seems experienced at this game, which may mean that he plays some metagame that is out of my league. I'd still rank you third on my suspect list though, behind Archz and Gaeios.

Gaeios also seems to be experienced at this, taken from the fact that he bashes other people's mafia reasoning skills in his own reasoning posts (no, I am not butthurt *sob*). In addition to this, I don't feel like he has given me enough analytical content to try and pinpoint his allegiance, and that is why I am more suspicious of him than I am of Yoica.

I was trying to show that I am making a genuine effort here to win us the game. As I have also stated before, I would rather you lynch me in a strategic effort to single out the mafia rather than this game descending into a state where everyone votes individually based on their own reads. IF it is even possible to solve it with a unified strategy that everyone except one person can agree to.

[Gaeios(Graxlos)]

I'd say if everyone agrees then we know we are lynching a green. So that is not something we want.

Will share some observations before lynch time since I cba looking over voting patterns on my phone.

[Grilldyret]

I'd say if everyone agrees then we know we are lynching a green. So that is not something we want.

Will share some observations before lynch time since I cba looking over voting patterns on my phone.

Everyone except one person*

In my opinion, it doesn't matter if we lynch a green so long as we can be reasonably sure one out of two people are red. It may be far fetched to think we can narrow it down to two people, though, but do you oppose the general idea?

[Archz]

Just from looking at the votes on day two, I'm getting a good feel that Grilldyret is the last mafia goon. Hugman already had two votes, and Phoenixflame didn't bother changing to Hugman because there were no other mafia left to sway the vote to a majority on him, which I think they would have done if they'd had the chance.

[Grilldyret]

Why would Rash vote for Hugman then, out of anyone he could have randomly voted for? If he realized that he was screwed anyway, why vote the same as another mafia player voted for? I am assuming Rash was fully aware that whoever else that voted for the same as him on day 2 would come off as suspicious. If I was red that would be a downright strategical failure

[Mouseh]

Ok, this is what I got, some quick notes:

Arches -
1. at 1st voting rash tried to bandwagon him by giving him 2nd vote
2. at 2nd voting - final nail to rash (3rd vote)
Green imo

Yoica -
1. pushed Phoenix from start of day 2. If he was a goon he would at least try to get someone else suspicious.
Green imo

Vorte and Gaeios - random vote pattern, can't get a read. Will look a little more in the evening.

Grilldy -
1. At 1st day vote he gave 3rd and final vote to Kili. If rules were as we thought they are Kili would be dead, among with Shimmar . 2 townies dead (plus the nightkill of tyler). Not bad for mafia.
2. Somewhat strange theories, including that one where hes saying that the case vs Phoenix could be constructed by mafia. When asked what he based that on he replied that he had nothing to base it on (no evidence or indications pointing towards it). Why mention it then?
To me it looked like he was indirectly trying to help Phoenix.

I think hes 3rd and final RED.

[Archz]

Why would Rash vote for Hugman then, out of anyone he could have randomly voted for? If he realized that he was screwed anyway, why vote the same as another mafia player voted for? I am assuming Rash was fully aware that whoever else that voted for the same as him on day 2 would come off as suspicious. If I was red that would be a downright strategical failure

Yes, a strategical failure I'm pretty sure you guys did. The only other option I can see is that if you're green, Graxlos is the only one meta enough to not bandwagon Hugman to save Rash since it was becoming more and more obvious that he was a cop. The only problem with that option is that if Graxlos was mafia, I'm pretty sure they would have done a hell of a lot better in this game.

I agree with Mouse, but I'd put Vorte as a solid green as well. And let's not forget about Kili. Not as solid voting pattern, but he was very close to getting lynched on day three and that with a vote from mafia. So that leaves me with Grilly or Graxlos

[Archz]

... but he was very close to getting lynched on day three ...

*Day one