Mini-mafia - The Witch Hunt - The Town of Notta Rossa

[Palmar]

Palmar mentioned that either hugman, vdti, veilas or matt didn't get roleblocked. The fact that hugman didnt get roleblocked is obvious, witches wouldnt roleblock the same person they would kill the same night. The fact that noone else have bitched about that statement makes it pretty obvious to me that they are either bad townies and witches in a alliance or just town people uniting. I'd like to jump on to that wagon mostly to keep track of what's said but also see how people react to our discussions when it comes to votes.
 

The reason no one else is bitching about that statement is that the rest of them actually read what I said, I never mentioned hugman.

Anyway, we need to find out who got roleblocked. It wasn't me, starbrow, matt, veilas or vdti, so it's either black or nach.

And the reason I know this is I poked them all privately and they all denied having been roleblcoked.

[Palmar]

So, I'll give matt that his case is a solid one.

I need to go back and read the thread. Nach and Star as the mafia team makes sense for other reasons too, they seem to be online at the same time a lot, and they seem to make the same decisions a lot.

The thing is, I found them the two most pro-town people in the thread aside from this. And starbrow is too smart if he was the mafia too create such an obvious tag-team. There is also the problem that I think Matt is one of the most likely people to be mafia.

Blackwhale got roleblocked, I really don't know how to deal with this. technically this should confirm he is not mafia, since no one is counter-claiming it, but it also might mean the mafia didn't use the roleblock last night, and he is just claiming it to gain town credit.

We haven't had any other reports. Please, if you have anything you want to share, don't wait too long. If intend to give out results at all, then out them asap, because if you wait you'll just look like mafia trying to gain town credit. Any good town will always give the information they mean to give, as soon as they have that information.

I will split this into another post, and explain where I stand at the moment.

[Starbrow]

Well well, time to quote this thing up.

He tries to distance himself from Nach - Something the mafia from last game could have done with.

Nach hadn?t posted by that point, so poking him is natural. If tossing in a few words towards someone constitutes an attempt at distancing, you?ve done the same with Palmar and Sintrael.

He tries to throw doubt on Palmar, one of the town's (probably) best assets.

Where as you only conclude (without posting reasons) that Palmar and Sintrael are Witches here and here? Also, the only thing I said was that even though Palmar has posted a lot of pro-town posts, we haven?t played with him before and we have no solid proof that he is not a Witch, so until we have something more than a few posts indicating that, it would be pretty stupid to trust him in a doe eyed fashion.

His main suspects are 3 confirmed greens (remember, this is my reasoning and I know I'm green).

Decides to vote for Hugman.

I?d like to again point to the section above where your main suspects are a confirmed green and Palmar, meaning you are guilty of this yourself? You also decide to vote for a confirmed green, and you decide not to post any sort of reasoning with it, where as I at least bothered to let it be known that I wasn?t sure about fuck all.

Nach tag-teams him on this.

Actually I ?tag-team? Nach, though we post within seven minutes of each other, so I can see why you might have messed that up.

Palmar gave them another option in his post (which lead to the hugman voting) and that was me.  Who would the mafia want to get rid of in the game?  Me or Hugman?  Historically useless to everyone vs historically extremely useful green?  They choose Hugman.

While I do agree on your point about usefulness, there?s plenty of people that the mafia could have wanted to get rid of, so it?s not a heads or tails decision as you make it out to be.

if a bandwagon (Nach/me here being the bandwagon) is started by a couple of people on a greenie, that could be a good source of information on day 2. So if you can gain information, wrong votes may turn out to be good votes.

Tries to convince people that voting for Hugman is probably a good idea anyway, just to get some information.  What does he have against Hugman?  Palmar has suggested that he thought Hugman was playing a blue before he was lynched - Hugman was much quieter than his previous games - Perhaps this is the same conclusion that was drawn by the mafia... such as Starbrow.

Starbrow knows form experience that Hugman is a good analytical poster, so another reason to get rid of him.

Well done taking it out of context. What I actually try to get at in my post  is that he might be ?over defending himself?. A misconception that Palmar rightfully challenges in his next post. I then go on applaud that Hugman has finally put up some proper content, at which point my eye turns towards you (was that what warrented this huge post from you about me?) and Sint, as you both had contributed nothing of value at the time.

I had nothing against Hugman, in fact I tried to back every post up with content. Something you certainly wasn?t in a hurry to do on day one (I tried to find a link for this point, but guess what, you have so few posts that I?ve already pointed to all of them).

Now they are tag-teaming Sintrael, another confirmed green.

Along with yourself?

Are you honestly here suggesting that the Witches (Nach/me in your logic) try to start a bandwagon on Hugman within seven minutes of each other, abandon that ship to go for Sintrael (a less useful person to the town) also in unison? Are you also suggesting that we?d even ask Sintrael to contribute and try to defend himself if we just wanted some random green dead? Holy shit we?d need to have large cojones (this is here for Nach to quote and confirm) or be dumb as two sacks of potatoes.

So far I think the reasoning behind their kill might be to make Palmar stand out as he's otherwise the "logical target" for the night kill. Or the Witches feared he'd be protected for the night. Or he is actually a Witch himself.

Again, tries to suggest that we should not trust Palmar.  Palmar has done nothing but post useful information and good analytical posts.  If Palmar is a townie, he is our best and most experienced player.  It makes sense for the mafia to cast doubt on him.

Of course we shouldn?t completely trust Palmar! Why would you even say that is a bad thing? I?m not saying that we disregard Palmars words, nor am I saying that we shouldn?t follow his advice. What I am saying is that we have no solid proof of him being a townie, and until such a thing emerges, following him like sheep is potentially dangerous.

As I am also saying in the quote, I have a feeling that Palmar might be the target of a framing as he is indeed an experienced player. However it hurts no one to remember the fact that he has not been cleared. In the part of the quote you ?very conveniently? didn?t include, I even go on to state that:

I personally think the two first are the most likely scenarios thus far, as Palmars posting has been very pro-town in my eyes.

See this? The part where I point out that I?m mostly confident that Palmar is being set up and not a Witch? The part of my statement that shows what I meant instead of taking it out of context?

---------------------------------

I think that was the entire post. I?m not gonna defend Nach, that?s his own job. I appreciate you (finally) contributing, but I certainly feel like your entire post is set up to put me in a bad light by taking my posts out of context. I?d love to return the favour, but hey, you posted nearly nothing of value on day one.

I find it striking that you fault me for hitting a green, when you did the same thing. Your vote wasn?t even backed up with any sort of thoughts or reasoning. You also didn?t post to elaborate on why you didn?t change your vote later in the day like others did. It is also striking that you doubt Palmar and Sint would be openly agreeing with each other if they were Witches (here), yet you use the argument that Nach and I agree, thus we must be Witches.

Now it goes without saying that of course people should be suspicious and of course they should point out links if they see them. I am by no means saying otherwise with this post, as I have also not been proved town. However, I'd appreciate it if you applied the logic in your arguments to yourself first, just to realise where you're actually guilty of what you accuse others of.

[Nachmanun]

Woah, big post from Matt. Your post actually makes pretty good sense, but in my own defense I'd never play such an obvious tagteam, not even for the sake of doublebluffing - I just believe we think similarly.

Reason I voted Hugman at first was simply because he had some silly arguments who felt very wonky (atleast to me) and I felt slight suspicion, I corrected this by unvoting later. Should I have been a Mafia I'd probably try to fuel the slight doubt hugman already had, instead of unvoting him.

I partially revoted Sint to get something out of him, he died pretty quietly which was a bit of a shame.

I am however glad you're quite actively participating this game with a rather impressive and compelling post Matt.

Do you have any other suspects apart from me and Starbrow?

[Palmar]

So here are our options.

We're currently 5v2

if we mislynch, we'll be 3v2, and if we mislynch then, even a vigi shot won't help us.

So, what we're looking at is that we can basically kill two times until we're fucked.

This is problematic for me, because at the moment I am inclined to trust Blackwhale, and kill into my original scum-list.

Vdti
Veilas
TTaM

If we had more chances of not failing, then I would want a vigi shot on either nach or starbrow, mostly to clean up the chances of them being the mafia team, at the moment it looks very unlikely one of them is mafia if the other isn't.

If there is only one mafia in this list, then I'd guess the other mafia is Blackwhale, and the roleblock is fake. But that can wait until tomorow when we know the target of a second roleblock.

Of the three people in this list, I feel Matt has contributed the most, but he's still scummy as hell, as he's only done the contribution from pressure. But almost everyone seems okay with killing matt, which is weird, if he was mafia, there'd be a stronger case for someone else.

Veilas and Vdti are just useless, this is why I wanted a vigi to shoot tonight, cause then we could have cleared this entire list and definitely found one scum, but now we've got to settle for only two, unless someone has a better idea.

##Vote: TTaM

[Starbrow]

In a completely unrelated subject: Fuck you forum and your stupid fetish with changing special characters to ?

[Starbrow]

So after Kesh's post this morning I can't help but feel that his post tries twisting my words a little too hard. Among other things, accusing me of things he is himself guilty of reeks of Witch, and hence I will be voting for him.

##Vote: TTaM

[Daekesh]

He tries to distance himself from Nach - Something the mafia from last game could have done with.

Nach hadn?t posted by that point, so poking him is natural. If tossing in a few words towards someone constitutes an attempt at distancing, you?ve done the same with Palmar and Sintrael.

There are, however, not 3 witches.

His main suspects are 3 confirmed greens (remember, this is my reasoning and I know I'm green).

Decides to vote for Hugman.

I?d like to again point to the section above where your main suspects are a confirmed green and Palmar, meaning you are guilty of this yourself? You also decide to vote for a confirmed green, and you decide not to post any sort of reasoning with it, where as I at least bothered to let it be known that I wasn?t sure about fuck all.

I thought my reasons were pretty clear, even if they weren't written by me.  There was very little to go on in day 1, so very little "reason" for voting for anyone.  Sint seemed to be doing the most suspicious things.  Remember, he's not the experienced player that Palmar is. I wouldn't put it past him to do something like supporting his mafia compadre in public so blatantly.  Also see my note about house of cards in small games.

Nach tag-teams him on this.

Actually I ?tag-team? Nach, though we post within seven minutes of each other, so I can see why you might have messed that up.

A tag-team is a tag-team, no matter who goes first!

Palmar gave them another option in his post (which lead to the hugman voting) and that was me.  Who would the mafia want to get rid of in the game?  Me or Hugman?  Historically useless to everyone vs historically extremely useful green?  They choose Hugman.

While I do agree on your point about usefulness, there?s plenty of people that the mafia could have wanted to get rid of, so it?s not a heads or tails decision as you make it out to be.

There it was.  Palmar gave you 2 options.  You picked Hugman over me.

if a bandwagon (Nach/me here being the bandwagon) is started by a couple of people on a greenie, that could be a good source of information on day 2. So if you can gain information, wrong votes may turn out to be good votes.

Tries to convince people that voting for Hugman is probably a good idea anyway, just to get some information.  What does he have against Hugman?  Palmar has suggested that he thought Hugman was playing a blue before he was lynched - Hugman was much quieter than his previous games - Perhaps this is the same conclusion that was drawn by the mafia... such as Starbrow.

Starbrow knows form experience that Hugman is a good analytical poster, so another reason to get rid of him.

Well done taking it out of context. What I actually try to get at in my post  is that he might be ?over defending himself?. A misconception that Palmar rightfully challenges in his next post. I then go on applaud that Hugman has finally put up some proper content, at which point my eye turns towards you (was that what warrented this huge post from you about me?) and Sint, as you both had contributed nothing of value at the time.

Are you honestly here suggesting that the Witches (Nach/me in your logic) try to start a bandwagon on Hugman within seven minutes of each other, abandon that ship to go for Sintrael (a less useful person to the town) also in unison? Are you also suggesting that we?d even ask Sintrael to contribute and try to defend himself if we just wanted some random green dead? Holy shit we?d need to have large cojones (this is here for Nach to quote and confirm) or be dumb as two sacks of potatoes.

AS I have said in my theory.  You were then publically supporting Hugman, so you could kill him at night instead.  His posting made it unlikely that he would be lynched, so you needed another target.

Now they are tag-teaming Sintrael, another confirmed green.

Along with yourself?

I started the vote on Sintrael because of his overt support of Palmar without reason.  You 2 jumped on the bandwagon later, after the Hugman Gambit fell through.

He tries to throw doubt on Palmar, one of the town's (probably) best assets.

Where as you only conclude (without posting reasons) that Palmar and Sintrael are Witches here and here? Also, the only thing I said was that even though Palmar has posted a lot of pro-town posts, we haven?t played with him before and we have no solid proof that he is not a Witch, so until we have something more than a few posts indicating that, it would be pretty stupid to trust him in a doe eyed fashion.

As I am also saying in the quote, I have a feeling that Palmar might be the target of a framing as he is indeed an experienced player. However it hurts no one to remember the fact that he has not been cleared. In the part of the quote you ?very conveniently? didn?t include, I even go on to state that:

I personally think the two first are the most likely scenarios thus far, as Palmars posting has been very pro-town in my eyes.

See this? The part where I point out that I?m mostly confident that Palmar is being set up and not a Witch? The part of my statement that shows what I meant instead of taking it out of context?

I'm saying that there's no reason to distrust him at the moment.  Remember, chances of him being mafia is 2/9.  Every time I mention this, I always include an 'if hes town' or 'probably'.  I've never said he is a townie.

I find it striking that you fault me for hitting a green, when you did the same thing. Your vote wasn?t even backed up with any sort of thoughts or reasoning.

Yes, I didn't include too much reasoning in my first post.  I thought it was clear that I agreed with Blackwhale on the subject.

You also didn?t post to elaborate on why you didn?t change your vote later in the day like others did.

Why would I change my vote?  Nobody else did anything to warrant it.

It is also striking that you doubt Palmar and Sint would be openly agreeing with each other if they were Witches (here), yet you use the argument that Nach and I agree, thus we must be Witches.

If you read my post, you would know that I did not say you _must_ be witches, simply that you were the most suspicious person I could find.  (That wasn't quiet - Palmar seems to have taken it upon himself to poke the quiet ones.)

Now it goes without saying that of course people should be suspicious and of course they should point out links if they see them. I am by no means saying otherwise with this post, as I have also not been proved town. However, I'd appreciate it if you applied the logic in your arguments to yourself first, just to realise where you're actually guilty of what you accuse others of.

I did not vote for one of the most historically useful greens.  I did not vote for 2 greens.  I did not post enough.  I am rectifying that.

[Daekesh]

Do you have any other suspects apart from me and Starbrow?

Yes.  My other theory is rather less backed up by posts, though, and that is Blackwhale, which is entirely based on the 'Palmar is a townie, mafia need to distrust him' angle.

-----------------

As we really dont have anything to go by i think we sould frame a person for being a witch and see how they defend themselves and who defends them. The easiest way to do so is to simply vote for a person and then see them fight for there life. If they dont fight their a bad player (like me the last game) or a witch that we force into the daylight. Anyhow the odds of them making a misstake or a fellow witch will greatly increase if we manage to get them talking early in the game

So, without anything to go on ill think we start with someone who havn't spoken yet.

##Vote: Palmar

Starts out by saying that we need to poke somebody that hasn't talked to get some sort of response.  Proceeds to poke the most experienced mafia player here, making it almost useless.  Only serves to say "palmar hasn't posted yet, what is he hiding?"

Having watched the game from all possible angles i consider palmar extremely dangerous if he turns out to be a witch. Him being very open and making good points about how to drive these pegans out of our town could either be him building up trust to stab us in the back or just him being a good citize.

Again with the Palmar doubt.

Good points palmar, but as i said earlier you're a bit to "powerful" to be trusted completely.

And again...

----------------

Again, going to make this clear, this is very weak reasoning, is why I didn't post it.  However, claiming the role block does, in my opinion, make him more suspicious.  Palmar puts forth the theory that a roleblock was not used and then claimed by the mafia themselves to make them look innocent.

Really, though, not too sure abut Blackwhale.  He is one of the players that has posted less than me, though.

[Daekesh]

Well, my reasoning was that the more stuff that's in the open the better.

Last game we had an inner circle of players who did all the thinking, and it got some greenies killed as they didn't have the information the other players based their votes on.

That is why I would rather want this information in the thread than in some secret group of possible witches.

This also makes me suspicious.  You complain that there was an inner circle that might have had witches, so you want the information out in the public so there are definitely witches in it?

[Palmar]

Here is the problem I have with the situation.

We probably don't have a vigilante or a cop. Any vigilante would have shot a lurker night one, because now he can ONLY shoot night 2 if we successfully get mafia, which is stupid.

I'll try to explain.

it was 7v2

mislynch and mafia kill and now it's

5v2.

If we don't hit tonight, it'll be 3v2 tomorrow. If the vigi failshoots, then it's 2v2 and the game is lost. The town gets 3 kills in this situation (all lynches)

However, had the vigilante shot tonight, even if he shot wrong we would be in a 4v2 situation today. Even if we mislynch, he could also shoot during the night, with 50% chance of success even if the shot is completely random (3v2, and he is one of the three).

The town would've gotten 4 kills this way.

So, either we have a retarded vigilante, or, more likely, no vigilante.

We also probably don't have a cop, as someone would either have an innocent report or a guilty report, although it can be theorized that the cop would've investigated hugman, and thus doesn't have anything.

This leaves us with a Doc and Veteran, which is probably the hardest set-up for town to deal with.

Up next: why we should hang vdti or veilas over ttam.

[Daekesh]

Well, I may not have posted as much as some, but I don't think I've done anything overtly suspicious.  I've been quiet the first day because, well, everyone was quiet, there wasn't much to say!  I don't like talking at night, it just helps the mafia.  Now we come to day 2 and I'm contributing.

Veilas has made maybe 1 post more than 2 lines.  Hiding?  Busy?  Useless?  Pick one.

[Palmar]

the whole "talking at night helps mafia" is bullshit.

But, I think matt might be legit, based on his recent posts and some prodding in pms.

I still really dislike him being quiet for the first cycle, but I guess we can't policy lynch him for that, I knew that I'd have to deal with part of the town being just plain bad when I signed up for this.

I'm working on an analysis on Veilas atm.

[Daekesh]

Mafia need information to kill the right people.  People posting at night gives them more information.  How is that good for anyone?  Unless you're afraid you're going to die, that is.

[Palmar]

Yep, best done with some aggresion to see the person defends himself !
I'll go with starbrow since the two of us didnt post anything yet !
##Vote: Starbrow

First up, a random vote on an inactive.

A vote without content isn't pressure, it's however a great way of looking like you want to pressure. The only way a vote is a pressure is if you provide some aggressive analysis or accusation with it. Without that, the vote is just a random vote, which is bad for town.

Could be bad town play, could be mafia, needs more evidence.

Yea the thing about Palmar was obvious!

To Answer blackwhale the only thing we can do i get as much info as possible but everyone already knows that ! I'm trying to post something that isnt completely useless or obvious and it's hard ...

Not much here, all I want to point out is that he's basically playing the "I'm new/confused" card, which is generally a scumtell where I come from, because any town person that can't even convince himself he's right, is never going to convince anyone else.

But for mafia, it makes perfect sense to act like you're unsure of what you're doing. No responsibilty, no risk!

Let's see what we have so far, first off hugman who got killed. The reason behind that is(i think) him being an pro town the last two game thus making him very dangerous for the mafia but then we have Palmar who could be even more dangerous with his expirience which makes Palmar very suspicious in my eyes .Him suggesting to kill off the silent ppl off who would give very little information is also a reason for my suspicion.There's also a possiblity that the mafia's plan is to get Palmar lynched the second day becouse of that.Maybe i'm overthinking things!
 Hugman voted for Kesh witch brings me back to Kesh, he could have been framed by the mafia seeing that he had some votes on his head Day 1 witch makes me a little less suspicious of him but maybe that's what he wants( if he's mafia)...

As for my Vote on Sint, the main reason behind it was that i though that we need a majority vote to lynch someone, if it wasn't for that i would have gone on someone else who would give us more info even though we had very little that Days so let's try getting some more posting today, my main suspect is Palmar for the reasons above. I hope my post isn't too confusing!

This post is full of uncertain wonderings and no conclusions. It's pretty clear Veilas does not want to take charge.

Note that even if Starbrow, Nachmanun, Myself and TTaM were all on Sint's lynch, Veilas feels the obligation to distance himself from the kill, which wasn't even a bad lynch (sintrael was basically useless). Veilas takes extra care to emphasize that he is not to blame for the villager dying. No one else has done that...

He's posting wishy washy shit, he's posting fluff without conclusions, he's uncertain, scared and feels the need to apologize.

Veilas has all the classical signs of a scum in his posting

##Unvote: TTaM
##Vote: Veilas