Mafia IV - Lord of the Rings -

[Surim]

What is your reason for suddenly swapping your lynch vote from Matt to Tyler @Palmer?

[Palmar]

Fuck it, this is probably the dumbest town idea I've ever seen. Let's not lynch matt.

I don't want to lynch surim, sky, eetion, yoica either.

Uturn.

Yah, he voted for nach in the thread and explained it by nach trying to a out a blue. While it's probably the dumbest shit I've seen in a mafia game, it's more likely he'd think of this gambit as town. It's just hard to imagine him thinking of this gambit as scum, since he seems to have had this idea for a while (instead of just randomly claiming it like I originally assumed).

Like the connection that his idea was that anyone who wanted to out a blue might be scum, is of course terrible, but it also means he probably sat there and thought about it, which means he's probably town.

[Grishnag]

and palmar you have been spouting random votes for the last 2 hours now
that just seems wierd and... well stupid

[Palmar]

Pro-tip: changing your mind is not scummy.

[Palmar]

Also, anyone voting for me based on the fact that I'm actually reading the thread and making opinions that are up for change, if I see something that is valid enough to change it, is approaching the game in the completely wrong fashion.

It's strictly dumb to think that has anything to do with being scum, because it's actually a bit of a towntell as it forces me to make intelligent explanations.

I think tyler is not putting any effort into the game, which is weird compared to the games he has already played. Before I changed my mind on matt he agreed with me, which is fine, but I'd expect him to re-evalute that opinion now.

[mayx]

Yah, he voted for nach in the thread and explained it by nach trying to a out a blue. While it's probably the dumbest shit I've seen in a mafia game..

Tyler = red, is it or is it not? Imo next to be lynched

[Eetion]

Lots of shizzle going down last minute, this is so incredibly weird? Some kind of Bandwagon on to Palmar arise in the last minute, including TTaM ?

[Skymunken]

So now TTaM changed his vote to Palmar as well with 15 minutes to go.

No post or anything, makes you wonder if he is speech blocked, or if he is fucking around

[Skymunken]

Unless we see anyone change to Palmar, TTaM will still be lynched.

[Cwave]

POST COMING UP

[Cwave]

TTaM had always been a solitary figure. He kept mostly to his own, unconcerned with the dealings of Middle Earth; he found he could not quite understand the people or their motives. In his aid in the struggles against Sauron, TTaM found he had lost his way. His original intentions were good but it was just so hard to concern himself with the affairs of men and elves.

And so his goals and his views changed.

On this fateful day, TTaM found himself running, free. As he drew closer to the faces he knew, he waved his hand and raised his voice to shout -

- until an arrow zoomed down from the crowd of friends, planting itself firmly in his throat.

“We have ve killed him! We have shot the scumbag!” came a triumphant cry from the battlements as guardsmen hurried down the steps to investigate the body.

And all around Arda, the birds and beasts of the realm wept. For TTaM’s was true of heart, and died alone.

TTaM, Frodo the Ringbearer, Vanilla Town, has been lynched!

IT'S NOW NIGHT ONE. REMEMBER TO SEND IN YOUR PM'S TO BOTH ME AND GRAXLOS BEFORE TUESDAY 6th of march, 23:00 GMT+1

[Tyler]

So just a regular green, damn. One more for the Kesh book of odd plays.

Claims red, don't post anything else in the main thread. Put something in the voting thread about blues, switch from Nach to Palmar last minute to save his skin.

I didn't see anything there to change my mind so I didn't. He was as bad as ever it seems. This should however give us some more to think on.

[Palmar]

Yeah, now we think about lynching you tyler.

Give me your top 3 scum reads in the game.

[delling]

Oh no, Mr Frodo! *loyal Sebwise picks up the ring and trudges on towards Mt Doom*

[Hugman]

Right. Long post, but you must read it if you are serious about playing mafia.

Palmar is 100% Red.

If you haven't been paying attention to the last 4 pages here is why:

First, posts this:

Wow.

Okay, so here's something to discuss, this is the order in which we will lynch people, from highest priority to lowest.

Scum -> Liars -> Stupid -> Default to lynching Nach.

Totally pointless. Like posting "my helpful first post is, we hang the people we think are Red!, YAY!"

Then he posts we should Rng the first day:

Ok here is a suggestion.

What we do is we use a RNG to select the day 1 lynch. Is everyone happy with the idea?

Yoica questions this, and he jumps on him:

Prove that it statistically favours red yoica.

Until you can, I want to lynch you.

I also point out that asking for Rng kill is very unlike Palmar, as he has in other games when I have suggested this, said I was an idiot for doing so:

Palmar saying "lets just Rng day 1" is suspicious to me, as that's exactly what I normally say, to which he always has replied that I am being retarded by saying that. So him taking that tact is one of two things, imo:

1. He is red, and trying to get a rng green kill.

or 2. He is green, and just threw that out there as his opening gambit, to get the ball rolling, then going on to Yoica when he objected. This is more likely imo, as rng red kill is far more harmful than rng green kill early on.

I want to hear from grishnag.

This gets no response from Palmar. Why? Because responding to it would draw to much attention to his uncharacteristic suggestion, and put some heat on him, rather than what he wants to focus on, as Red, getting Kesh lynched. So he ignores it.

Then, I suggest quite reasonably, that Kesh claiming Red is either helpful for the Reds, or compulsory for his role (which it was). Other people point out they feel that this could be true, and his response is:

Barring a better lynch we kill TTaM for stupid. The chances of there being a role that actually forces someone to claim red in the game.

I am going to re-read the thread later and I'll point out some stuff I notice. In addition, those of you who haven't posted at all should probably start doing so now.

I meant to say the chances are very small.

In addition, we'll be stuck thinking about it forever if he's telling the truth or not.

Claim scum -> die.

If he's town he's dumb.

This is his attempt to draw attention from the possibility that lynching kesh is a bad idea. He says that the chances are small that Kesh has to say he is red, when he is green. He doesn't even humor that idea. BIG RED FLAG.

Then asks me why I went for Grish, not particularly suspicious, but in the contects of the rest of it, is an attempt to refocus attention.

Then:

this is a 12 man game. Scum with lynch immunity would be complete overkill.

This is where he starts playing "I AM PALMAR, I HAVE PLAYED LOTS OF MAFIA GAMES, I HAVE HOSTED LOTS OF GAMES, YOU SHOULD TRUST ME, WITHOUT VALID REASONS" card. The above quote from him, is an assumption, yet he is trying to push it as true, hoping his "credibility" will back it up. No.

Several other players voice similar opinions about it being a bad idea about lynching Kesh.

He gets desperate, he resorts not to logic, but to insults:

Seriously hugman, that logic is so bad that now I'm confused. Are you really that dumb, or are you scum?

Because you seem to believe Kesh is actually red, there is no reason not to vote him. the only reason to leave him alive is if you genuinely think he can be nothing but town given this dumb gambit he's decided to pull.

If you find red, you lynch him. Then you carry on.

Don't be terrible, vote for matt.

A townie Palmar, would use logic to prove his point. A Red Palmar, is under a lot of attention, and can't push to hard that the lynch kesh is bad idea is wrong, or will seem too scummie.

Just to point out a few obvious things. It seems quite likely skymunken is town, I'm not sure about Eetion but he could possible be town too.

I obviously have no idea how to read half of IE.

There's actually a chance yoica is town, but I wouldn't bet my head on it.

Then we get several posts, which don't prove anything, fog it up a bit, and end with, maybe Skymonken, who is also suspicous of this kesh thing, is town. This is an attempt to pull back from saying we should 100% lynch kesh, without saying it, by supporting some who doesn't want to lynch him.

I actually don't like the Surim lynch. There's nothing in his filter that screams one alignment or the other.

I'd much rather just kill MaTT for derp.

Another push on getting kesh killed.

Then this:

Don't wifom yourself too much about the setup. Cwave hasn't designed setups before, so I'm pretty sure he would not include ridiculous dumb stupid roles that are forced to roleclaim or something silly.

I mean, if matt had later entered the thread with some reasonable amount of time left in the day, and tried to explain his bullshit, I might have listened... but by now it's 3 hours left in the day.

He's the best lynch today. Any lynch we go for from now one is going to be a rushed dumb lynch that has no chance of hitting scum. If he flips town feel free to call me scum all you want.

This is "OH SHIT, THIS LYNCH KESH SUSPICION ISN'T GOING AWAY! LETS MAKE IT OUT THAT CWAVE ISN'T VERY SMART, AND THAT HE WOULDN'T PUT IN ANYTHING WHICH IS CHALLANGING. LETS ALSO BACK IT UP BY REMINDING THEM, HEY! I AM PALMAR! I PLAY MAFIA ALOT! I HOST MAFIA! I MUST BE RIGHT, TRUST ME!".

Amusing.

Not to mention, policy lynching stupid shit like this might improve play in IE games.

Now this is fucking hilarious. "Policy Lynching". Priceless. Lets lynch someone based upon a set policy we have premade up before we see the facts and regardless of the situation.

You know, we could do it to with criminal convictions to in real life. Lets say some guy sees someone trapped in a burning house about to burn to death. Thinking quickly he spots a heavy blanket in a car near by. He smashes the window of the car, grabs the blanket, covers himself, charges into the building, and manages to save the guy. Then, the owner of the car, calls a cop, gets him arrested, and hauled before a judge, because he broke his window. The guy tries to explain, and the judge goes, "No, i am sorry, we use policy conviction here. We try every crime to a set policy, rather than based upon the facts or situation. You must pay the owner of the car £60 for the window, and £500 for trama". Yeah, I am sure this Policy lynching will improve our Iron Edge mafia games.

And then we have the final nail in the coffin:

There's actually a decent chance, given his vote on nachmanun, that this ridiculous gambit is something he thought of as town.

I need to rethink this shit over a dota game. Will let you know.

Fuck it, this is probably the dumbest town idea I've ever seen. Let's not lynch matt.

I don't want to lynch surim, sky, eetion, yoica either.

This is what we call a total and utter U-turn. Other tactics have failed, lets reverse my entire straturgy, and go the compleate other way.

DING, DING, DING DING! WE HAVE A WINNER! This cemented for me, that Palmar is 100% without doubt, Red.

Why? Because, if you have ever played a game of Dota/Hon/whatever with Palmar, ever spoken to him on ts for any length, ever raided with him, or even spent some time in real live with him, you will know this fact. Palmar can be an arrogant, self righteous berk, but once he has decided something, he always, always, sticks to his guns.

Without fail.

An attack on an enemy team in dota? Looks risky? FUCK IT, LETS DO IT! Never after that point, decides to abort, right or wrong. Its a good way to live, and it is part of who he is. The above U-turn, is so unbelievably anti-palmar-ish it should be written out in 60foot neon lights, and accompanied by a full Brazilan Carnival.

Seriously, you know its true.

I might also be open to lynching nachmanun or maix, although maix seems less likely to be scum than the other two.

Is grilly even playing? It's not good when people forget you, that means you're useless.

Grish is just a complete null at the moment.

Yah, he voted for nach in the thread and explained it by nach trying to a out a blue. While it's probably the dumbest shit I've seen in a mafia game, it's more likely he'd think of this gambit as town. It's just hard to imagine him thinking of this gambit as scum, since he seems to have had this idea for a while (instead of just randomly claiming it like I originally assumed).

Like the connection that his idea was that anyone who wanted to out a blue might be scum, is of course terrible, but it also means he probably sat there and thought about it, which means he's probably town.

Just late minute fogging and blurring of the targets.

Pro-tip: changing your mind is not scummy.

O'rly? No Palmar, it is for you.

Also, anyone voting for me based on the fact that I'm actually reading the thread and making opinions that are up for change, if I see something that is valid enough to change it, is approaching the game in the completely wrong fashion.

It's strictly dumb to think that has anything to do with being scum, because it's actually a bit of a towntell as it forces me to make intelligent explanations.

I think tyler is not putting any effort into the game, which is weird compared to the games he has already played. Before I changed my mind on matt he agreed with me, which is fine, but I'd expect him to re-evalute that opinion now.

The above to quotes, are last minute attempt to seem to contrubuite, back peddle a little bit now that the Kesh lynch is seems to be going ahead, so he as some chance of surviving tomorrows lynch.

Anyway, the conclusion is, Palmar has pushed very hard to dissuade us that lynching Kesh is a bad idea, and convince us that kesh is the clear "obvious" day one lynch. This is dispute myself, and others, voicing that it isn't that obvious, and just by Kesh's brazenness, we should suspect foul play. All of his posts have been toward that... Except the last few. Buy which time the Kesh lynch band wagon is already underway, and he attempts to pull a U-turn, and massively back peddle, in the hope when he comes up green, that Palmar will have some small chance of surviving the next lynch.

TL, DR: Palmar is blatantly, painfully clearly Red.

He should 100% be our lynch on day two.

That's it for now, tomorrow I will go over who else I think is Scummie, (mainly Tyler right now, 80% sure). Personally, with Palmar Red, and I suspect Tyler too, I don't think I will live through the night, but we will see.